I have heard people with bet selection strategies that they claim lower variance in wins/ losses- is this possible? And if so what strategies would you reccomend?

Yeah, you lower variance in roulette rather simply: Spread the bets around. You win more often but don't win as much. Unless I'm completely off my rocker, that's the very definition of lowering variance.

Go ahead and bet more numbers. As you bet more and more, you progress towards the condition of betting all 38 numbers. In that case you would hand the casino 38 units and they hand you back 35. Complete elimination of variance.

Quote:Walkinshaw30tThis may be a stupid question but is there ways of choosing outside bets in roulette or player/ banker in baccarat that will lower variance between wins and losses?

Sure, bet on opposing events simultaneously. Bet Red and Black, or Odd and Even, at the same time. Unless you hit the zero, you will always push - variance will be minimized.

Minimizing variance on a negative EV game is a pretty bad idea from the players point of view. The house will love you, but that is not the answer you are looking for, right ?

Quote:odiousgambitIn negative expectation, when you lower the variance, the casino likes it.

Go ahead and bet more numbers. As you bet more and more, you progress towards the condition of betting all 38 numbers. In that case you would hand the casino 38 units and they hand you back 35. Complete elimination of variance.

Hate to be accuracy police, but you'd be handing them 37. Or they're handing you 36. However you want to phrase it.

Quote:FinsRuleHate to be accuracy police, but you'd be handing them 37. Or they're handing you 36. However you want to phrase it.

you may be right, I don't play, but doesn't it depend on whether the table is zero or double zero? Since you can put it on zero & d-zero [right?] that makes up to 38?

As for baccarat, you can lower the variance by not playing the side bets. Also, since they don't make you bet everytime you can bet only when you "feel" you know which side is going to come up. Since all casino games are negative expectation game, don't play trying to win, have some fun and leave it at that.

Quote:Walkinshaw30tThis may be a stupid question but is there ways of choosing outside bets in roulette or player/ banker in baccarat that will lower variance between wins and losses?

I have heard people with bet selection strategies that they claim lower variance in wins/ losses- is this possible? And if so what strategies would you reccomend?

Hello, Walkinshaw30t. Good question, my friend.

I'm not so sure about "lowering" one's variance, especially at an "even chance" game such as Baccarat, but I do happen to believe in the "harnessing" of variance statistics.

Variance happens. It is a very natural "cause and effect" within the boundaries that are the Banker and Player selections at Baccarat. Reduction of variance? Difficult, at best.

So I utilize a form of variance "tracking" in my play:

I have 4 "preferred trending plays" that I utilize exclusively.

I have calculated, for each one of those plays, their inherent "variance statistics".

To define "statistics":

a.) Strike rates (w/l %) on each play.

b.) Distance between (read: variance) their median (read: avg) range that each play will/can stray.

c.) Longest win and loss streaks on each play.

That's it. There's my variance "formula". Does that, alone, put me ahead of their house edge? Nope. Nor will any singular approach.

But, combined with my other "Player's Edges", it surely does.

Variance exists. We all, as serious players, must come to terms with it as best we can. That is the very nature of the formula I just laid out herein.

I wish you all the very best of it.

Quote:DJTeddyBear

Yeah, you lower variance in roulette rather simply: Spread the bets around. You win more often but don't win as much. Unless I'm completely off my rocker, that's the very definition of lowering variance.

Exactly what I would have said. Sure you can lower

your variance in roulette, bet on all 100+ spaces

except a few and you'll win every time, except

for the few when you don't. It will change nothing,

the house edge will take just as much of your money

in the long run.

People make way too much out of variance. The house

always gets your money, good variance just means it

does it slower. In the end, which is all that counts, whats

the difference.